Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Leading AI chipmaker Nvidia and software company Emerald AI will work with a number of energy supply companies to “power and advance a new class of AI factories” that can connect to the grid faster and “operate as flexible energy assets that can support the grid.”

The approach will use a new reference design with Nvidia’s latest chip and its DSX software to help manage power use in real time, modulating demand and coordinating flexible load.

Nvidia envisions factories using on-site, co-located generation and storage as a bridge before they connect to the grid, and then on-site assets will “flexibly support the grid.”

Emerald AI’s Conductor platform will orchestrate computational flexibility, combined with onsite resources to deliver power flexibility.

“Power-flexible AI factories” Nvidia claims, “can help unlock up to 100 gigawatts of capacity across the U.S. power system.”

For perspective, the U.S. hit an all-time peak of 759 GW last July, and has 1,300 MW of installed generating capacity.

Data center flexibility is important because there’s limited transmission and supply available on the grid and new infrastructure can’t be built fast enough.

Plus, the grid has an estimated load factor (the percentage of the energy we use versus the amount we could use if we ran at 100%) of about 60%. It’s very inefficient.

Supply also gets expensive. PJM’s capacity market prices have soared 7 or 8x over average historical numbers, with data loads costing ratepayers an estimated $23 billion in the past three capacity auctions.

By creating more flexibility during grid scarcity, one can meet more demand without building new infrastructure, AND flow more energy across the same grid, lowering the per unit delivery price.

Two recent studies on flexibility suggest that flexible operations can greatly increase ability to add load and result in economic efficiencies: 76 GW of new load could be integrated with just an average annual load curtailment rate of 0.25% and 98 GW of new load could be integrated at a curtailment rate of .5%.

And avoiding just 1% or 2% of the peak hours would reduce utilities’ new natural gas combined cycle construction costs by 10% to 15%.

But the available information doesn’t really tell us all that much. We don’t how flexible the operation of large language training models will be, nor do we know the potential flexibility in the inference function, where the models perform on demand to undertake the work new need on a daily basis.

We have limited empirical data: an EmeraldAI data center in Arizona cut

power consumption by 25% during three hours of peak grid demand. As of late March 2026, Emerald AI confirmed it has demonstrated power flexibility capabilities at five different commercial data centers around the world. But actual performance numbers are limited, for durations and percentages.

Likewise, Google announced it has surpassed 1 GW of demand response but didn’t share the details that matter.

If AI data centers are anxious to connect to the grid, flexibility and ability to curtail should be a pre-requisite. And treated cautiously.

Grid operators such as PJM don’t have the availability to enforce precise real-time load curtailments for individual data centers in real-time, so the system risk is large.

If only 10% of forecasted data loads don’t curtail power during a grid emergency, the shortfall could cost billions.

The PJM Independent Market Monitor states that data load bring their own new generation, which could speed up interconnection. Without it, they should be curtailable before other current demand side customers, and not be paid as demand response – this should be a pre-condition for interconnection.

In summary, the Nvidia Emerald AI and Google announcements on flexible load are interesting, and the economic incentive and technical potential may be there. But we don’t know how it will work, at what scale, and for how long. Until we do know, significant skepticism and caution is warranted.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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In early March, mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM Began using Ambient Adjusted Ratings to better determine how much power can flow through its lines based on actual weather conditions. In addition, the DOE announced it will award billions for quick and effective upgrades to the transmission system.

First we have to fix the broken interconnection issue. For all projects seeking interconnection to the grid from 2008 through 2019, only 19% of the projects actually flowed power by the end of 2024. The typical project built in 2025 took 55 months to get through the queue, compared with 36 months in 2015. 

But even if all of that new supply capacity could be processed through interconnection queues, there are simply not enough transmission lines to accommodate the planned resources. And few new lines are being built: less than 1,000 miles of 345 kV+ transmission lines were completed in 2024 – far less expansion than is needed, especially in the face of enormous new data center demand.

The biggest challenge is permitting for new rights-of-way, which can take well over a decade. There is a glimmer of hope that the federal government may reform the permitting process prior to the mid-terms, but it’s unlikely. 

Grid-enhancing technologies, or GETs, can offer some relief by doing more with existing transmission. In addition, there is the growing potential for reconductoring. 

The GETs technology with the greatest near-term is dynamic line rating, or DLR. As power lines move more power, they heat up. Lines are limited in terms of how much they can energy move by static ratings, based on worst case weather assumptions, such as 100 degrees F with no wind.

Such conditions rarely occur, but with static ratings flows cannot exceed those pre-set amounts. Most days, one could move much more power through that line, if one were 

using DLRs - a combination of software and sensors. DLRs measure ambient temperatures and wind (wind wicks lots of heat away from the line, as well as how much sunshine is warming the wires. Sensors also measure how much the wire is physically sagging at any given moment. This information helps operators move more power without hitting “thermal violations.”

A 2024 case study showed static ratings could be exceeded 100% of the time, with average capacity increases of 81%. In summer, one could exceed the static ratings 94% of the time, with average increases of 27%. 

A less capital-intensive approach that doesn’t require physical sensors and uses weather data, but also fails to measure the impact of wind, is called Ambient Adjusted Rating or AAR. AARs automatically predict transmission line capacity on an hourly basis. 

The Federal Energy Commission’s 2021 Order 881 mandated AARs for grid operators by July 2025. But nobody met that deadline. PJM was first, going live on March 4. It will use hourly ratings from real-time to as far as 10 days out and  employ monthly seasonal ratings for longer-term studies 12 months out. 

Meanwhile, the DOE announced funding of approximately $1.9 bn to “accelerate urgently needed upgrades to the nation’s power grid.” The DOE specifically calls out reconductoring –stringing new and more efficient lines along the same or upgraded poles. 

Since rights of way are the single largest limiting factor to expanding transmission capability, it makes sense to fully exploit existing ROWs. Reconductoring can cost-effectively double transmission capacity within existing ROWs and save billions.

We’ll still need to build many new transmission lines. But it will take many years for new lines to get built. In the meantime, it’s essential to do as much as possible with the infrastructure we have. These two recent developments are a start. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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The US solar industry installed 43.1 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) of capacity in 2025, down 14% from 2024. 

GWdc is the nameplate rating of projects before they connect to the grid through inverters converting direct current (DC) to the alternating current (AC) our grid uses. 

Two elements lower DC ratings to AC ratings. First, inverter losses are around 4% losses. 

More importantly, solar panels have specific output duration curves; there’s only a very small period when they produce maximum output, or even 80-90%. 

It’s uneconomical to buy an inverter rarely hitting full MW ratings, so developers resort to “solar clipping.” A a 100 MWdc solar array might see inverters delivering a max 80 MW of AC power to the grid. Typical DC/AC ratios are1.1 to 1.25. 

So, MWdc numbers must be translated to the real world MWac of the grid

But all capacity is not the same: a MW of solar capacity has two factors differentiating it from, say, a MW of gas-fired generation.

First, solar operates at a different capacity factor (a resource operating at 100% output all year would have 100% capacity factor). An average panel capacity factor is 25%, compared to 60% for a combined cycle gas plant. So, it’s best to think in terms of energy generated. It also matters where panels are located. Massachusetts is 16.5%, while Arizona is 29%. 

One way to compare is by energy output.  Solar is now approaching 10% of total energy contributed on the grid. And you can put in solar arrays faster than new turbines. With data center demand, we need all the electricity we can get. 

However, the solar is not dispatchable. It only shows up when the sun shines, while the gas plant can be called upon anytime, except sometimes in extreme weather. 

In 2024 mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM down-rated combined cycle turbines 96% to 79% in terms of their ability to meet peak demand on the worst hour of the worst day, and recently lowered that rating to 74%.  But PJM has solar at only 7%. 

When you hear about solar in terms of MWdc, , it helps to reframe those values using the above information.

Nonetheless, solar has grown considerably. In 2009, about 1 GW – 1,000 MWs of solar was added iomn the U.S. That total is now 279 GWdc, and analyst Wood Mackenzie forecasts an increase of 490 GWdc over the next decade. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Xcel Energy announced a deal to supply a new Google data center in Pine Island Minnesota with renewable energy. The utility said it was committed to ensuring that new large loads do not negatively affect other ratepayers and that this Clean Energy Accelerator Charge (CEAC) would help meet that commitment, with 1,400 MW of wind and 200 MW of solar. 

The CEAC also includes a $50 mn investment in Xcel’s Capacity Connect program, a unique effort in which it will develop and own up to 200 MW of distributed storage assets, with between 1 and 3 MW of storage at local commercial, industrial, and institutional sites.

Storage is also part of the huge Google deal, with a technology at a scale the world has never seen before: iron air batteries from Form Energy, with 300 MW at 100 hours of duration, totaling 30,000 MWh. This single project represents a little over 50% of the entire battery energy storage duration installed across the U.S. in 2025.

Iron is abundant and it’s cheap, but it has taken the company many years to get to this point, manufacturing, testing and validating the technology. 

Form bought and rehabilitated an old steel mill in W Virginia – with annual output of 500 MW when fully built out. The Google deal will take 60% of one year’s capacity. 

Unlike lithium-ion batteries, that typically operate at 90% round trip efficiencies, losing 10% of the energy during each cycle, or pumped hydro that often sits in the mid 70% range, Form has a low 40% RTE. 

Nonetheless, 100 hours of duration, if delivered reliably, at low cost, and in enormous quantities, has the potential to be a game changer in integrating more variable wind and solar to decarbonize the grid and meet the huge demand from data centers.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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The last few weeks have seen numerous announcements by U.S. fusion energy companies.

First, let’s briefly explain fusion. With fission, you take a heavy and unstable nucleus and split it into two smaller nuclei, releasing energy and creating a chain reaction.

With fusion, you cause two light nuclei (usually hydrogen isotopes) to collide and merge into a heavier nucleus (such as helium), releasing energy. The sun is an enormous fusion reactor.

For commercial fusion, you need three things: 1) temperatures high enough (around 50 to 150 million °C) so nuclei move fast and fuse frequently; 2) sufficient density creating more opportunities for nuclei to collide, fuse, and release energy; 3) the ability to confine the reaction, keeping the plasma dense and hot enough to yield a net energy output.

Plasma itself is a state of matter in which a gas is highly energized so its atoms have lost one or more electrons, creating a mix of free electrons and ions.

Confinement of plasma can be achieved with the inertia of a compressed pellet or by using magnetic fields.

The pellet confinement approach - inertial confinement fusion, or ICF – is achieved by compressing a small fuel pellet (typically hydrogen) rapidly and with high density so it fuses before it can break apart.

With magnetic confinement, two main technologies exist: 1) tokomaks – donut shaped devices combining magnets with electric currents in plasma to construct a sort of magnetic cage; and 2) stellerators – machines employing magnetic coils that yield twisted magnetic fields requiring less currents in the plasma. Companies are pursuing approaches along these two main lines, with the majority using the magnetic approach.

The major recent technical achievement was Helion’s announcement that it had achieved plasma temperatures of close to 150 million degrees C.

On the commercial front, Type One Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority are advancing licensing and construction plans for a 350 MW stellerator fusion plant, with groundbreaking as early as 2028.

Regarding licensing, Thea Energy received the first Department of Energy certification for its pilot stellerator design.

In financing, Avalanche Energy received $29 million in new investor funding, following significant breakthroughs in plasma physics, to support licensing, commercial-scale operations, and a test program. Avalanche is developing a tiny fusion reactor between 1 and 100 kW, “small enough to sit on your desk.”

Inertia Enterprises also raised almost $450 million to construct powerful lasers, as well as a power plant slated for 2030 commissioning.

Meanwhile, General Fusion announced an agreement to go public at about $1 billion through a SPAC this spring.

Of course, challenges await all of these companies: technological issues, licensing, supply chain, and the critical need to deliver electricity at a competitive price.

Investors are interested. Through the middle of last year, the industry received almost $10 billion in funding, and billions have since been invested.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Let’s explore the complexity associated with keeping the lights, using New England as an example. The region is a bit of an outlier because of its proverbial end-of-the-pipeline location. Most days, its two pipelines are sufficient to heat homes and generate power. But late January to early February was unusually cold and there was not enough gas for both.

We’ll look at both energy and capacity issues. Capacity is the instantaneous amount of electricity produced or consumed. Energy is a function of capacity times the duration.

The hottest and coldest days are the ones in which we stress the grid the most – because of heating and cooling demands.

Annual grid peaks typically occur in summer, around 5:00 or 6:00 PM. So grids need enough generation to meet the peak demand, plus a back-up reserve margin, in case we lose a big power plant or transmission line.

Until recently, ISO-NE only paid attention to summer peaks, when the system maxed out. But recently, it began to shift its attention to the winter as well. First, because new loads, especially EVs and heat pumps, have higher winter demand. Second, there’s not enough gas to go around.

Fortunately, from a reliability perspective, the region’s dual fuel turbines can burn fuel oil or kerosene, and even jet fuel. So the focus shifts to energy, because the amount of stored liquid fuels is limited, though it can be replenished – especially if weather cooperates. During the frigid cold snap in 2017/2018, New England started with 5 million barrels of oil and ended with only one, in one case burning a million gallons in a single day.

During the extreme cold this January, fuel oil was the leading source of generation for several days, constituting over one-third of operating generation.

One new resource just commissioned was the 1200 MW New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) transmission line, bringing hydropower from Quebec to Massachusetts with a contract for an annual 9,555,000 MWh. The NECEC line was expected to help address winter capacity and energy issues.

But last week, no power was flowing into New England over that line on the coldest days. On the frigid Sunday before the storm, power flowed for only a single hour, with the line operating at about half its capacity. The following day, at around 6:00 in the evening, electricity started flowing again at about 25% - this despite penalties for non-delivery.

However, the contract does provide a measure of relief to those oil supplies in the long run. Today, January 3rd, the temps are in the mid-20s. The region continues to burn oil, at 23%.

But net imports right now, including the HQ NECEC contract, make up 16%.

That electricity represents expensive oil inventories we are not burning. Offshore wind – Vineyard Wind has helped as well.

So does rooftop solar, cutting demand by up to roughly 3,500 MW for a good chunk of the day – that’s also largely fuel oil we don’t have to burn. Which matters, since the forecast for the weekend is for wind chills dropping into the negative teens on Sunday night.

It’s clear over-reliance on a single source of supply is a risky strategy, and an all-of-the-above approach helps keep the lights on during those coldest of days.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Three different federal judges overruled the Trump administration offshore wind stop work orders, allowing work to resume. The government failed to demonstrate a national security risk so urgent that construction must cease. PJM filed an amicus brief in support of the project, saying delays could “cause irreparable harm to the 67 million Americans served by PJM…” It noted “national security benefits in the form of a stronger and more reliable electric grid.”

The Administration and a bipartisan group of governors held a meeting and called on PJM to schedule a one-time emergency capacity auction to dedicate supply resources for 15 years for data center loads. Data company officials and PJM were not invited. 

This approach creates two auction structures and risk starving the existing structure, especially if the 2nd auction is more lucrative. 

Two features may be useful, though: 1) a  focus on new marginal supply resources; and 2) a longer term for fixed capacity prices so investors can better assess profitability. 

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission will need to bless this proposal, and in the interim, this issue will remain highly political.  

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Another federal judge lifted a stop work order on a New England offshore wind project; a Virginia project seeks the same treatment.

Today, though, we’ll focus on prospects for fusion and fission.

In mid-December fusion company TAE announced a merger with the Trump Media Group, and said it will site and begin construction on a 50 MW fusion plant this year. TAE’s website targets the early 2030s for commercial fusion plants, and it just began site selection for a site of over 20 acres.

But a better fusion bet may be Commonwealth Fusion, with critical progress including manufacture of the first magnet needed for the magnetic bottle holding the fusion reaction – at temps of 180 million degrees F – hotter than the core of the sun.

Commonwealth is building a demonstration plant in Massachusetts while partnering with Nvidia and Siemens to develop digital representations of its machine to accelerate progress.

It also has two buyers. Google’s taking 200 MW from the first plant in Virginia. Italian energy company Eni is also buying output, in a deal worth over $1 billion.

In fission, Meta just announced deals with Generation 4 mini nuclear companies, Oklo and TerraPower. Gen 4 nuclear plants are designed to be smaller, fuel-efficient, fail-safe, using fuel from which it is harder to make nuclear weapons.

Meta’s deal will site a plant in Chicago - the first of up to 1,200 MW worth, with an online date as early as 2030.

Meta’s deal with Bill Gates-backed TerraPower specifies up to eight reactors, paired with energy storage systems. The first two reactors may start as early as 2032, eventually scaling to 2,600 MW of nuclear and 1,200 MW of storage.

Other hyperscalers are also active. Last year, Google, Kairos, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a 50 MW power purchase agreement between Kairos Power and TVA, to support Google data centers. Kairos and Google have a separate agreement for 500 MW of nuclear capacity by 2035.

Meanwhile, Amazon and X-energy announced a relationship with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, and Doosan Enerbility to accelerate the deployment X-energy’s reactors in the U.S., with a target of 5,000 MW across the country by 2039. Amazon already has its first sites, signing a deal with state public utility group Energy Northwest, four small reactors totaling 320 MW, and an option to grow to 960 MW.

There are other small nuclear companies such as NuScale and Holtec, but all face similar challenges.

They must: get designs approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission; build and trial first reactors; construct their factories; and fill order books to achieve scale and cut costs.

A new workforce must also be developed, and NIMBY issues overcome. If solar and wind face local pushback, small nuclear plants will see even more.

But the cost issue will be critical, and NuScale serves as a cautionary example. Its original deal with the Utah Association of Municipal Power Systems was for $58/MWh. Post-COVID, that number soared to $89, and potential buyers exited.

The future of the fusion and fission industries will depend both on what they can achieve, as well as the health of competing technologies in the market. They may survive and thrive or be relegated to a small niche in the power game of tomorrow.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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Offshore wind was targeted by the Trump Administration in 2025, with multiple rationales offered to cripple the industry.

On January 20th 2025, President Trump issued an executive memorandum to suspend issuance of any approvals required to develop and operate wind energy projects, pending wide-ranging federal assessment.

Seventeen states and DC filed suit, and won, with a Circuit Court judge ruling the executive order was “arbitrary and capricious.”

The Department of Interior also went after Orsted’s Revolution Wind project with a stop work order in August 2025, citing unclear national security concerns, though DOI Secretary Burgum cited underwater drones, that could be launched in a swarm attack through a wind farm without detection. A federal judge rejected that order.

In December, the DOI issued new stop work orders impacting five major East Coast offshore wind farms, again citing national security risks.

As a result, Massachusetts – on December 30th – again delayed finalizing offtake contracts for two projects totaling 2,078 MW of capacity.

Last week, the 700 MW Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island and the 810 MW Empire Wind 1 project off New York went to court requesting an injunction against the stop work order.

Revolution Wind argued that it had undergone extensive reviews with federal agencies and agreed to a mitigation plan addressing any national security risks.

Empire Wind also argued that the terms of its lease specify that advance notice “will normally be given before requiring a suspension or evacuation.”

That’s what’s really at stake here. This precedent allows future presidents to take similar actions against other investments they don’t like. Some oil co execs say this type of zigzag is “detrimental to business” because one cannot make long term plans.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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While the tech world focuses on the latest software updates, a massive, invisible crisis is unfolding in the energy sector. Currently, the PJM Interconnect—the grid operator covering 13 states including Ohio and Virginia—is holding a critical auction to secure power capacity for 2027. While these auctions are usually "arcane" and ignored by the general public, this one is different due to a perfect storm of stagnant supply and exploding demand.

Here is how the AI boom is physically reshaping the energy market.

The Catalyst: The AI Boom

The energy landscape shifted dramatically in November 2022 with the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. This "AI butterfly" effect sparked a massive demand for energy-hungry chips from manufacturers like Nvidia, causing data center loads to soar, particularly in key PJM states like Ohio and Virginia.

Demand forecasts that had been flat for a decade suddenly ramped up, adding 30 gigawatts to the projection. However, PJM’s supply side—the actual power generation—could not keep pace due to "interminable interconnection queues" and a lack of new construction.

The Supply Crunch and Price Shock

Compounding the demand issue was "Winter Storm Elliot" in late 2022. During the storm, nearly 40 gigawatts of gas-fired generation failed to perform, forcing PJM to "derate" (lower the capacity rating of) existing assets.

The economic result was brutal: A supply curve that barely budged met a demand curve shifting rapidly to the right.

• Historical Average: Capacity prices averaged roughly $37.68 per megawatt-day over three years.

• The Spike: For the 2025/2026 delivery year, prices skyrocketed to $269.92.

• The New Normal: Despite a price cap negotiated by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to protect consumers, the clearing price for 2026/2027 hit $329.17.

A Broken Market Signal?

In a functional market, high prices signal producers to create more supply—like bakers baking more bread when the price of flour rises. However, electricity generation faces a unique hurdle: time. High prices today cannot instantly conjure new power plants because of complex supply chains and regulatory delays.

Consequently, the "elastic response" of the market is broken. We are seeing massive inflation—data center load alone has added $16.6 billion to costs over the last two auctions—without the necessary corresponding increase in power generation.

What Comes Next?

The situation has become a "political hot potato," with state governors expressing a lack of confidence in PJM’s leadership. While the Department of Energy is attempting to step in with a "one size fits all" approach to interconnection, states are pushing back against federal overreach.

As the current auction concludes, stakeholders are bracing for the results to be released on December 17th. With the pressure from data centers reaching a "boiling point," these results may physically and financially test the grid in unprecedented ways

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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AI infrastructure provider Crusoe and modular nuclear company Blue Energy announced a new partnership focused on developing and operating a 1.5 GW nuclear-powered data center campus. 

With modular nuclear, there are still numerous hurdles to overcome. 

But assuming that works, Crusoe and Blue Energy will power the data facilities in the interim with on-site gas generation. They cal it the world’s first gas-to-nuclear conversion, with the transition to nuclear by 2031.

Most data centers are still trying to connect to the grid, but competitions is fierce, and the process is messy.

An unnamed developer there is no one size fits all process, and some utilities are remarkably ill-prepared.

The October 23 letter from Secretary of Energy Chris Wright to the FERC addresses this, directing FERC to develop an interconnection rulemaking for data centers. 

But why not skip the grid and go with on-site co-located power for the long run? Because generation plants break down on occasion, and eventually need to go out for maintenance. 

Data facilities not tied to the grid may have to carry considerable excess capacity. A 200 MW data center in Ohio needs 30 machines, totaling 320 MW address those issues.

For those trying to connect to the grid, transmissions takes forerver to build, in some cases over 15 years (Space’s rocket went from design to orbit in less than 6)

Texas is planning a huge new investment in transmission, but it will still fall shoert of what may be needed.  

But today’s inefficient grid - operating at a roughly 53% load factor – is an opportunity IF we can build more flexibility into the data centers and the overall system. One study suggests that with flexibility, one could interconnect 10’s of thousands of additional MWs. 

Chipmaker NVidia is working with software vendor Emerald AI on flexible data centers, perhaps cutting loads by 25% when needed..

Or data companies could bring their own generation, so grid operators can disconnect them from the grid when necessary. 

Data centers might also be able to buy capacity from somebody else, an approach DR provider Voltus and others are pursuing. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Solar Edge Technologies says it has enrolled over 500 MWh of residential battery storage into Virtual Power Plant programs across 16 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. 

2.) U.S Secretary of Energy Chris Wright directs the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to initiate a rulemaking to “rapidly accelerate” the interconnection of large loads – over 20 MW - to the grid. 

3.) Shell New Energies US voluntarily withdraws from 5000+MW Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, LLC off the coast of New Jersey and assigns 50% interests to JV partner, EDF-RE.

4.) Ford indefinitely pauses production of F150 Lightning electric truck after fire at aluminum supplier’s factory.

5.) Leading AI chip manufacturer Nvidia deploys software from Emerald AI at new data center in Virginia, assisting the facility to use electricity in a more flexible manner. Initial test demonstrates AI power consumption could be cut by 25% over a three-hour period.

6.) Glassmaker Corning’s Michigan silicon ingot and wafer factory is now online and will soon produce over 1 million wafers daily. Corning says 80% of polysilicon and wafer capacity already claimed over the next five years.

7.) President Trump announces major projects advancing Japan’s previously announced $550 billion investment commitment to strengthen the U.S. industrial base. Up to $332 bn will support critical energy infrastructure, including the construction of AP1000 and small modular reactors (SMRs), in partnership with Westinghouse; and construction of SMRs in collaboration with GE Vernova and Hitachi.

8.) The U.S. signs deal with Brookfield Asset Management and CAMECO - owners of Westinghouse - to develop at least $80 billion in nuclear reactors.

9.) Energy measurement platform WattCarbon launches program incentivizing large users to buy capacity from VPPs including numerous distributed energy resources. Watt Carbon to amount of flexibility and extra capacity VPPS add to the grid.

10) Form Energy begins deploying first commercial 100-hour batteries at Great River Energy’s 1.5 MMW, 1,500 MWh project in Minnesota. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World explores the transformation of global power, sustainability, and innovation. Listen to the podcast on:

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1.) South Carolina’s government-run power company Santee Cooper selects Canadian private equity firm Brookfield as its partner in resuming construction of the abandoned 2,300 MW V.C. Summer nuclear plant.

2.) The United Arab Emirates starts construction on $6 bn 5.2GW solar PV plant in tandem with a 19 gigawatt-hour battery storage system to provide 1GW of continuous baseload renewable power at competitive rates.

3.) The Mobility House and Itron announce initiative in New York State to accelerate fleet electrification, using flexible service connections taking distribution system capacity into account. This will be done by managing charging capacity limits at specific times, based on system limitations. Phase 1 will involve five school bus five chargers on Staten Island. Phase 2 will activate ten chargers a designated second site elsewhere in New York State.

4.) Battery recycling and cathode production company Redwood Materials raises $350 million for company’s energy storage business, and growing its refining and materials production capacity. Redwood recovers over 70% of all used or discarded EV battery packs in North America.

5.) Global Chinese battery market leader CATL has deployed 700 battery replacement stations in 39 cities across China. In those cities, drivers can access a swap station within a ten-minute drive and exchange their batteries in under 100 seconds.

6.) China’s Mingyang Smart Energy rolls out plans for a twin-headed 50 MW floating offshore wind turbine, supported with a V-shaped tower boasting twin 290-metre rotors.

7.) Joint venture BP and JERA joint venture cancels 2,430 MW Beacon Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts, laying off all staff team members. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) New York is joining other ISOs in facing new grid reliability challenges. Its just-released draft Reliability Plan comments that “New York’s electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges as resource retirements accelerate, economic development drives demand growth, and project delays undermine confidence in future supply. “ The Plan also noted that one-quarter of New York’s generating capacity is fossil-fuel-based and over 50 years old. At greatest risk is the New York City area, which is awaiting completion of the 1,250 MW Champlain Hudson transmission line, as well as the 816 MW Empire Wind offshore project, which was temporarily derailed by the Trump Administration’s stop work order this past summer.

2.) The U.S. Department of Energy unveiled its Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) Roadmap meant to help accelerate the U.S.  fusion industry toward maturity. The goal is to leveraging investments from both the public and private sectors and address critical science, materials and technology gaps, such as the breeding and handling of fusion fuels. The Roadmap identifies actions and timelines through the mid-2030s, specifying goals for the near-term (next 2-3 years), mid-term (3-5 years) and long-term (5-10 years). The report also notes that to date, the U.S. private sector has invested over $9B.

3.) The feds have been busy. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) closed a $1.6 bn loan guarantee with a subsidiary of American Electric Power (AEP) to reconductor and rebuild around 5,000 miles of transmission lines across Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. The goal is to strengthen grid reliability across the midwestern U.S.  This is the first loan guarantee to be closed under the Trump administration’s Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) Program created by the OBBA.

4.) Perhaps more noteworthy than the loan itself is the fact that it will support reconductoring, which is the process of stringing new and more efficient lines across the same tower infrastructure and right of way. AEP is a leader in this space, with multiple applications over the past decade, predominantly bringing more capacity into existing load pockets where rights of way are limited. The Electric Power Research Institute notes that in previous projects, AEP’s new configuration provided a 75% increase in line capacity.

5.) Small modular nuclear reactors – also known as SMRs - are beginning to look a little more real, with Amazon announcing that it’s working with Energy Northwest and nuclear start-up X-energy to develop an advanced nuclear plant in Washington state called the Cascade Advanced Energy Facility. The plan is to develop the project in phases, with construction of an initial four 80 MW Xe-100 plants starting be the end of the decade, eventually expanding to 12 units totaling 960 MW. Commissioning of the first generators is anticipated “in the 2030s,” which leaves a bit of wiggle room.

6.) Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio has set a new national – and thus global - record for EV battery swaps with over 145,000 swaps in a single day on October 1st.  During the past month, Nio has averaged 95,450 daily swaps with the total cumulative number at just under 88 million. Nio currently operates 3,520 swap stations in China and 61 in Europe. This year, Nio has opened 525 new stations.

7.) Bloomberg reports that solar thermal energy start-up Rondo Energy has started up the largest solar industrial heat battery to date. Rondo is using a 20 MW solar PV array to supply electricity to a 100 MWh thermal battery that heats up clay bricks to store energy. That heat is then used to boil water and create steam. In a somewhat ironic carbon twist, the first customer is Homes Western Oil Corporation which is using the tech’s steam for its enhanced oil recovery operation in Kern County, California. But Rondo sees the bigger picture, which is the industrial sector’s need for high heat in numerous thermal applications such as cement manufacturing. Rondo’s also joining forces with Portugal’s EDP for 2,000 MW of heat batteries in Europe.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) The Trump administration requests that a federal judge rescind the 2024 approval of U.S. Wind’s Maryland 2,200 MW offshore wind farm.

2.) Bloomberg reports Northeastern governors are looking at possible quid pro quos with the Trump administration to keep development of multi-billion dollar offshore wind farms on track, with possible concessions including support of small modular nuclear reactor projects and fossil-fuel infrastructure that they have previously opposed.

3.) Chicago utility ComEd kicks off vehicle-to-grid (V2G) electric school bus charging pilot with three Illinois school districts.

4.) The U.S. Department of Energy will deliver $134 million in grant funding for two programs designed to support emerging fusion technologies.

5.) Plus Power cuts ribbon 150 MW / 300 MWh energy storage facility in southeastern Massachusetts, the largest standalone battery system in ISO-NE. 

6.) A unanimous settlement agreement in Kansas sets new tariff model for data center load with 17-year contracts specifying take-or-pay provisions for 80% of expected capacity. Buyers will also post collateral equal to two years of minimum bills, and pay an interim capacity charge above regular rate if new generation.

7.) At Volkswagen Group press conference, QuantumScape and PowerCo announce world’s first live demonstration of an EV powered by a solid state lithium battery, with a Ducati V21L race motorcycle boasting QuantumScape’s QSE-5 cells.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Ford announces it will sell a new electric pick-up truck for $30,000, using an entirely new construction approach. It will also be engineered to power a home for up to six days in a power outage. AND have a “lower cost of ownership over five years than a three-year-old used Tesla Model Y.”

2.) Matson, the shipping company that delivers most of Hawaii’s has ceased shipping EVs and plug-in hybrids to the state, citing the risk of battery fires.

3.) Tesla scores 3,022 MW/12,088 MWh Megapack battery storage order - at $2.7 bn – from Georgia Power.

4.) On July 29, at 7:00pm, thousands of Tesla Powerwalls and Sunrun home batteries discharged 535 MW of power for two hours into into California’s grid.

5.) NextEra Energy recent files request with FERC to reclaim interconnection rights originally transferred from Iowa’s shuttered 615 MW Duane Arnold nuclear power plant to a solar facility, as it looking to accelerate recommissioning of the plant.

6.) New York State plans to keep its upstate nuclear plants operating for two more decades, extending the Zero Emission Credit subsidy program for Constellation Energy’s four nuclear reactors past planned end date of 2029 for another 20 years. Estimates of associated costs range from $15bn to $30 bn.

7.) The municipal utility in the Village of Monroeville, Ohio to host 6-MW floating solar array, one of the largest floating solar installations in the state and the country, with commissioning by 2026.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) American Electric Power anticipates its utilities will add 24 GW of new demand by 2030  — with 18 GW of that represented data centers. 13 GW is in ERCOT market – with 5 of that crypto load, 9 GW in PJM and about 2.5 GW in SPP. PJM load includes 3.7 GW in Ohio and about 3.1 GW of data centers in Indiana Michigan Power’s (IMP) service territory.

2.) Google agrees with two utilities – IMP and Tennessee Power Authority – to dial back power consumption when needed during periods of high load on the grid.

3.) DTE is in “advanced discussions” with data center hyperscalers for 3+ GW of data load that has access to land, while also discussing an additional 4 GW of potential load working to finalize control of real estate.

4.) A recent Department of Energy order requiring Consumers Energy’s Michigan coal plant to continue running beyond its scheduled its retirement date cost the utility $29 million over just five weeks, according to a recent SEC filing.

5.) Fusion start-up Helion commences work on an initial fusion generation plant in Washington state. The company’s goal is to deliver power by 2028, well ahead of any competitors.

6.) The Trump Administration’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is rescinding all offshore designated wind energy areas citing DOE order

“Ending Preferential Treatment for Unreliable, Foreign Controlled Energy Sources in Department Decision-Making” – and the Presidential Memorandum of January 20, 2025 – Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the OCS from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects.

7.) The move affects over 3.5 million acres of unleased federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, off of Maine, the New York Bight, California, Oregon, and the Central Atlantic.

8.) Sodium ion battery start-up Peak Power ships first salt-based battery system, at 3.5 MWh to be used in a shared pilot project with nine utilities and independent power producers. Peak is currently building its first U.S. cell factory, and expects to begin producing batteries by next year.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Oregon politicians passes two bipartisan bills to enable “microgrids” within the larger electric grid. One bill directs the Oregon PUC to develop a regulatory structure to enable both private and community-owned microgrids and allow municipalities to set up designated “microgrid zones.” The second bill would permit utilities or consultants to evaluate microgrid interconnection requests for connections to the larger power system.

2.) Some low and moderate-income native Hawaiians in Oahu will soon have the opportunity to access microgrids integrating carport-mounted solar and batteries. A two-carport configuration will combine 9 kW of solar, a 40-kWh battery and an electric vehicle (EV) charger in a package called Utility Lite for a fixed monthly fee of $300 for 25 years.

3.) China begins building $167 billion 70,000 MW hydropower complex in Tibet.

4.) A JV involving BMW, Honda, Ford, and Nissan called ChargeScape announces a partnership with PSEG Long Island to sign up 6,200 EV drivers in Peak Load Reduction managed charging program.

5.) EV manufacturer Nio says it has performed a total of 80 million battery swaps in China. It took 110 days to jump from 70 to 80 million.

6.) Google inks long-duration storage contract with Italian company Energy Dome, while also making a strategic investment in the company. The deal with Google is intended to promote development of multiple projects in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific, and the companies indicated they had a pipeline of site and projects in development and contracting stages.

7.) GE Vernova and Crusoe sign agreement for 29 of GE Vernova’s 35 MW aeroderivative gas turbine packages to power 1,000 MW of Crusoe AI data centers. The announcement did not specific a delivery date.

8.) Merchant company Talen will buy two natural gas combined cycle plants in PJM’s grid – one in Ohio and one in Pennsylvania from Caithness Energy – for $3.5 billion. The combined nameplate capacity is just over 1,900 MW.

9.) PJM Base Residual Capacity Auction sees prices pegged out at ceiling price of $329.17. Total estimated cost to load is $16.1, up from $14.7 billion the prior year, and from $2.2 billion in the 2024/25 delivery year. The next auction – for the 2027/28 delivery year – will take place in December. 

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) Santee Cooper, South Carolina's state-owned utility releases RFI seeking parties interested in completing two unfinished nuclear units totaling 2,200 MW and selects “fewer than five” of 14 applicants.  Construction of the two units was cancelled in 2017 due to cost overruns and the bankruptcy of Westinghouse, the primary contractor.

2.) Constellation Energy CEO says it plans to develop an upstate New York nuclear project.

3.) Invenergy - developer of the $11 billion, 4,000 MW Grain Belt Express transmission project - sends letter to the Department of Energy requesting it to proceed with a 2024 $4.9 billion conditional loan guarantee issued during the Biden administration, after Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley said he had "secured a pledge" from DOE secretary Chris Wright to halt the project.

4.) South Texas Electric Cooperative issues request for proposals for up to 500 megawatts of firm, dispatchable capacity and energy for terms from 20-30 years in the ERCOT region. Projects must be currently operating or expected to be commissioned by December 1, 2028.

5.) Google will spend over $3 billion for power from two of Brookfield Asset Management’s hydroelectric plants, totaling 670 MW of capacity.  The contracts are the first in a larger agreement that may include up to 3,000 MW in PJM and MISO.

6.) California grid operator CAISO plans to use AI to manage outages with a pilot program utilizing OATI’s software called Genie.

7.) The Southwest Power Pool looks to cut interconnection study timelines for large loads to 90 days if end users promise to cut demand or use back-up generation to help the grid during periods of stress.

8.) Nine governors from states in PJM region pen letter to the grid operator stating their concerns about electricity costs and reliability, stating PJM “faces an unprecedented crisis of confidence from market participants, consumers, and the states” and called upon the grid operator to make changes, commenting, “fundamental changes, and new leadership, are needed to restore confidence in PJM’s ability to meet the many challenges of this moment.”

9.) Chinese company Envision Energy has officially cuts the ribbon on a 500MW, 320,000 ton-per-year, first phase of its planned 2.5GW green hydrogen and ammonia plant to be supplied entirely from off-grid renewables.

10.) Uber to invest $300 million in U.S. electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid, and purchase at least 20,000 autonomous vehicles equipped with self-driving technology from autonomous vehicle software company Nuro. Uber will also make a multi-hundred-million dollar"  investment in Nuro.

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow’s Cleaner World

Peter Kelly-Detwiler

Energy Future: Powering Tomorrow's Cleaner World invites listeners on a journey through the dynamic realm of energy transformation and sustainability. Listen to this podcast on:

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1.) The biggest energy story of the week, and the year, is the passage into law of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill that essentially reverses much of the renewable energy and industrial policy enshrined in the Biden-era IRA. This capacity will not immediately be replaced with gas turbines: the turbine majors – GE Vernova, Mitsubishi, and Siemens are sold out, with wait times in some cases up to seven years, and costs reportedly up as much as 50% over the past 10 months.

2.) South Central Texas cooperative Guadalupe Valley Electric Cooperative to work with distributed battery storage developer Base Power to create a 2-MW virtual power plant, with battery systems deployed in new houses built by national homebuilder Lennar.

3.) California’s Turlock Unified School District takes delivery of nine electric Blue Bird buses and charging infrastructure to be charged by mixture of AC and DC chargers taking electricity from solar canopies over the school parking lot as well as utility power. Software from vehicle to x vendor Mobility House will optimize the use of on-site solar.

4.) New Jersey’s State Senate unanimously passes smart solar permitting legislation to expedite and simplify the permitting process for residential solar and battery storage systems with online, automated permitting platform.

5.) China reportedly installs a record 93 GW of solar capacity in May, equal to adding about 100 solar panels every second. To put that figure in perspective, the first three months of Q1 installments in the U.S. totaled 10.1 GW.