Chinese EV maker with half a million battery swaps; Germany requiring gas stations to put in EV chargers; Oil companies may lose as much as 2/3 of their value; NY w/massive onshore wind project

1) Chinese automaker NIO claims to have completed 500,000 battery swaps as of the end of May, a little over two years after it started, w/131 stations in 58 Chinese cities. A 3-minute swap is a better customer experience, but it's hard to see how the entire industry will shift to this approach, w/so much already invested.

2) Germany is looking at mandating that all gas stations have to offer EV charging. That could move sales just a bit.

3) London-based think tank Carbon Tracker that says that large hydrocarbon companies are at risk of seeing as much as 2/3 of their value - $25 trillion - wiped off of their books as a consequence of the forthcoming energy transition.

4) Suddenly New York thinks it's Texas. Regulators just approved a $454 million 340-MW wind farm spanning 30,000 acres southeast of Buffalo. 

Siemens Gamesa (SG) scores 1st 2 contracts for its 14 MW machines; Orsted teams w/ 5 large Danish companies on H2; UL certifies a wireless EV charging technology; negative power prices in the UK

1) SG announced 14 MW turbine & two orders: the 1st for 300 MW off Taiwan & 2nd off Virginia, w/Dominion 2,640 MW project, ready by 2026.

2) Six of Denmark's biggest companies will create big green H2 projects for transportation & heavy industry. Orsted will lead, w/up to 3 GW wind & 1.3 GW electrolyzer by 2030. Shell has similar H2 project in Netherlands w/up to 10 GW offshore wind by 2040.

3) UL just certified Lumen Group's wireless EV inductive charging technology to its 2750 standard. W/ no physical contact betw vehicle and charger, this type of tech is already in Amsterdam, Oslo, & Nottingham.

4) On May 22, average day ahead wholesale price was -£9.92 per MWh, going as low as £52.03 MWh (approx -$64 US). These prices represent a potential challenge, w/a real bifurcation betw low cost renewables & fuel-fired dispatchable resources. It will be difficult to incentivize the addition of new dispatchable resources in the future; a better mkt structure must be developed to deal with this emerging dynamic, in UK, US, and elsewhere. 

Denmark to Develop Two Energy Islands; Kauai at Almost 60% Renewables in 2019; BNEF Says We May Have Already Seen Peak Internal Combustion Car Sales; A New and Low-Cost Way to Create H2?

1) Denmark plans to develop two energy islands with wind turbines generating 4 GW by 2030. One artificial structure in the N Sea could host 10 GW of wind, partly used for production of H2.

2) Kauai generated 59% of its electricity from renewables in 2019 w/35% solar, 11% hydropower, 10% biomass. Customer rooftop supplied 1/3 of the solar. Kauai's been averaging 100% renewables for 5 hours daily in 2020.

3) BNEF reports that EV sales will fall 18% this year to 1.7 million. But internal combustion engine sales will fall 23%. More critically, BNEF's analysis, "Suggests that global sales of internal combustion engines peaked in 2017, and will continue their long-term decline after temporary post-crisis recovery."

4) Startup SGH2 claims that w/plasma torches, heating waste to 4,000°C, it can create green H2 for less than grey H2. Its $55 million facility to start construction near LA early 2021 yielding 38,000 tons of hydrogen annually, largely for fueling hydrogen vehicles in California. 

1) Equinor, Shell, and Total, working on $700 million carbon capture project off Norway to store 5 mn tons of CO2 in a reservoir 1.7 miles below North Sea. Either CO2 comes out up front, w/renewables, green hydrogen, or on the back.

2) HECO to buy 460 MW of solar power & 3 GWh storage, w/16 projects starting in 2022. HECO's total solar goes to over 50% w/utility 40% carbon free by 2030.

3) Maine's DEP OKs $950 million 145-mile New England Clean Energy Connect transmission project, for 1,200 MW and 9.55 TWh of hydropower from HQ to MA, possibly by the end 2021. Some enviro groups claim it fights climate change, but the crux is: either it creates additionality, that is, new hydro projects, or it doesn't. Based on my analysis for client, I stand firmly in the latter camp: NECEC does nothing to create additionality, simply moving non-firm exports into firm exports for the next couple of decades, while potentially forcing out new local projects.

4) We may see 3 Gigawatt-hour flow battery factory in Saudi Arabia. Site's already been identified, w/construction this year. The issue, is can they get to scale, drive the cost down, and can they compete in mkt dominated by lithium-ion to date. 

Super-Long Duration Storage Could Alter the Energy Landscape; Residential Solar Companies Driving Efficiencies - Because They Must

1) MN utility Great River Energy piloting a new storage technology from startup Form Energy, w/ 1MW aqueous air battery system said to be able to deliver 150 hours of continuous power. 150 hours of storage could facilitate a far greater penetration of renewable energy into markets. Critical issue is going to be the commercial and competitive one: Can it compete w/li-ion for the lion's share of value in the shorter duration market, while offering unprecedented value in longer duration one?

2) COVID is spurring adaptation & efficiency. Sunrun and SunPower adjusting very quickly, moving into digital sales, custom-designed software, and remote permitting and site inspection. In an extreme case, SunRun had customer signed up in the morning, we got the permit through, and we installed in the afternoon. That's unprecedented speed. 

Battery Costs Down 50% in Two Years; Abu Dhabi Sees Record Low Solar Price; Chinese Company Eyeing 200 MW of Solar to Green Hydrogen; Hydrogen Applied in Steel Rolling

1) BNEF reported battery system LCOEs have declined 50% in past two years, to $150/MWh for 4-hour duration projects. Implies peakers can now be batteries. Battery projects increasing in duration and size: 2015 saw 1.5 hrs of avg duration vs 2.2 hrs in 2020 projects; proj's grew in size from 3 MW to avg 21 MW.

2) Solar's getting cheaper. Abu Dhabi Power saw new record low tariff for solar project, w/winner at $13.50/MWh, (1.35 cents/kWh) beating last yr's record in Portugal of 1.64 cents.

3) As solar gets cheaper, green hydrogen becomes just a little bit more feasible. China's Baofeng Energy Group broke ground on the world's largest solar-powered hydrogen pilot plant, slated to use a 200-Megawatt solar power plant and electrolyzers. Project will cost $198 million and yield 160 million standard cubic meters of H2/annum.

3) A Swedish steel company announced it had replaced LNG as the source of high temperature heat at a steel rolling mill. Using H2 had no effect on the quality of steel. So, one step closer to green H2 in industry. Stay healthy.

1) New York State is pushing its next wind solicitation of 2,500 WM, w/a 9,000-megawatt offshore goal. However, this new solicitation will be delayed at the request of NYSERDA, owing to COVID-19.

2) Coal is getting destroyed by the coronavirus, and analyst Wood Mackenzie indicates coal demand down between 35% and 40% from 2019. Overall electric demand has dropped 5% - 10%, and most expensive resource is always the first baby kicked out of the bed. In this case, it's coal.

3) Solar cell efficiencies have shot higher, w/3 new records set in April. Two at NREL and one in Germany. A NRELs 6-junction solar cell, w/intensified light hit 47.1% efficiency, & in normal lighting conditions, hit 39.2%. 3rd record in Germany, w/perovskite pegging out at 24.16%.

4) NextEra keeps rolling, adhering to 2020 delivery schedules w/o slippage, and adding 1,600 MW of new projects in Q1. Included are 460 MW of batteries. NEE will invest over $1 billion in battery projects in 2021 - would be sufficient to power Rhode Island for a full four hours. So, lucky if you're in Rhode Island... ;-)