Tesla's Battery Day promises big advances; Daimler Benz announces solid state battery; CA PUC updates Rule 21 for DER Interconnections; China pledges net zero by 2026

1) Musk and team lay out manifesto for cutting battery prices by 50%, down to about $50 per kWh, focusing on multiple targets from the battery architecture, use of solid electrolyte, redesign of plant, and sourcing of raw materials. Tesla plans to scale from 100 GWh to 3,000 GWh or 3 TWh.

2) Daimler Benz announces a solid-state battery for its articulated bus, the eCitaro G.

3) California's PUC updates rule 21, governing the connection of DERs (hosting capacity) to the grid, incorporating data on actual grid conditions at interconnection points, and special rules for batteries.

4) China pledges carbon neutrality by 2060. It's currently responsible for 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions. China now has a net zero pledge and the US does not.

Battery Fire in the UK; FERC Clears the Way for DERS in Wholesale Markets; PA RGGI Fight Heats Up; and Google Takes Next Bold Step in Supplying Portfolio w/Clean Energy 24*7

1) Ørsted's 20 MW battery complex in Liverpool caught fire last week. Not much news out yet, but facility developed by now-defunct NEC had LG Chem batteries, (as did APS McMicken facility w/thermal runaway and explosion last yr).

2) FERC order 2222 sets path for DERs to broadly offer services in the wholesale markets. Commissioner Neil Chatterjee cited studies of between 65 and 380 GW of distributed energy resources coming online by 2025. A huge amount of information and coordination between ISOs & utilities will be required, & much stronger cybersec as well.

3) PA battle over joining RGGI heats up (both Houses oppose).

4) Google's making waves again, to carbon neutralize its entire energy ecosystem, and to match clean supply w/consumption hour for hour, setting a new bar for the industry and those with carbon goals.

FERC rejects NYISO plan to integrate in-state renewables; PG&E shuts power to 170,000 in fire season; Italy's top bank goes negative on coal; Greece follows suit, and so does S. Korea; Nissan hits 1/2 million Leafs; Nikola in a heap of trouble

1) FERC rejects NYISO's proposed changes to capacity market in order to integrate renewables necessary for 70% clean energy goals by 2030. Echoes of PJM's MOPR just begging for state-level insurrection;

2) In Calipocalypse, PG&E began preemptive power shut-offs 9/7 and restored on 9/10, affecting nearly 172,000;

3) Italy's top bank UniCredit limits exposure to coal investments, going to zero by 2028;

4) Greece to spend nearly $6 billion to facilitate shutting of coal plants by 2028. Replacements to include 2.3 GW of solar;

5) S. Korea to close 30 coal power plants by 2034, w/10 by 2022, and rest by 2034. They'll triple solar & wind and bump EVs from 110,000 to 1.3 million;

6) Nissan's 500,000th LEAF rolled off UK production line last week;

7)Nikola & GM announced strategic partnership w/Nikola to use GMs Ultium battery system and Hydrotec fuel cell technology. Two days later, massive fraud allegations threaten entire deal.

Mitsubishi wins order for 3 hydrogen-compatible turbines; NextEra to deploy 700 MW of batteries in CA; EOS w/orders for 1,500 MWh of zinc-based storage in CA and TX; 18% of Europe's July car sales were electric; KIA's 1st 800 volt-capable EV out next year; Total and Macquarie partner on 2 GW of floating wind;

1) Mitsubishi won order for nearly 3,300 MW of hydrogen-compatible turbines for 3 projects in New York, Ohio, & Virginia.
2) NextEra will deploy 700 MW of batteries in CA, w/ additional 2,000 MW in pipeline.
3) EOS announced orders for over 1.5 GWh of long-duration zinc-based battery projects in TX and CA.
4) 18% of July car sales Europe were electric.
5) KIA's first EV that can take 800 V charging coming out next year.
6) Total and Macquarie signed a 50/50 partnership to develop 2 GW of floating offshore wind projects in S. Korea.
7) Fossil-free Steel just got a major step closer with Swedish steel company SSAB, state utility Vattenfall, & mining company LKAB, announcing pilot plan to use clean electricity & hydrogen to make fossil-free sponge iron.

GE looking at 120 meter offshore blades; Portugal nails another record price for solar; Kia looking at 800 volt charging capability; SoCalEd to build out EV charging network: California outage report expected in next few weeks

1) GE and Dutch government working on a rotor test rig that will allow development of offshore blades up to 120 meters;

2) Portugal's recent 670 MW solar tender w/ record-setting bid of $13.16/MWh. Last year's best Portuguese number was $17.40.

3) Kia will introduce 800 volt charging unit, but will focus on European sales in next few years, eventually w/ 20% of total vehicle sales in US to be electric by 2026.

4) Southern California Edison receives approval for $436 million infrastructure charging effort for 38,000 EV chargers over the coming four years, w/make-ready elements up to the charging station.

5) Renewables initially blamed for California blackouts a week and a half ago, but CAISO and the PUC have pushed back. The PUC intends to release an analysis in the next few weeks. It needs to be both fast and thorough report, a difficult challenge.

Painting one blade black reduces wind turbine bird deaths; Neoen w/massive wind/solar/battery project in Australia; battery manufacturer SK innovations shooting for nearly cobalt - free batteries; Capital Dynamics teaming w/Tenaska on 2GW of batteries in CA; 28 double-decker buses doing V2G in UK

1) Norwegian researchers: paint one blade black & birds avoid wind blades, w/deaths down 72%;

2) French developer Neoen files application for $3 bn wind, solar, & storage project in S. Australia w/ 1,200 MW of wind, 600 MW of solar, & 900 MW/1800 MWh of batteries - some transmission required;

3) Korean manufacturer, SK Innovations, plans to cut cobalt content in battery down to 5% by 2023, & to 0.5% by 2030.

4) Capital Dynamics joins w/ Tenaska to develop nine battery storage systems in CA, totaling 2,000 MW. Meanwhile, Avista announced two weeks ago permitting for 1,500 MW and 6,000 MWh of storage in Moss Landing area, near CA's Bay area.

5) 28 electric double-decker buses are being tied together in one of largest vehicle to grid projects in world, to deliver 1 MW of capacity into UK grid. V2G will pop in coming years. There's too much money & too many GWh of storage rolling around on wheels for it not to happen.

Google w/ $5.75 bn in sustainable bonds; Maine floating wind project getting geared up; BP to spend $5bn on sustainable energy; Global coal gen sees first decline ever; Your EV can pay for your parking

1) Google offered $5.75 billion of sustainable bonds - vastly oversubscribed - focused on clean energy, and smart buildings.

2) Mitsubishi and German developer RWE Renewables teaming up w/ the U of Maine's Aqua Ventus to build a 10-12 MW floating wind project off Maine. Floating wind should scale very rapidly.

3) BP plans to cut oil and gas production, invest $5 billion into clean energy by 2030, as part of a major strategic shift. It projects demand in fossil fuels to decline by up to 75% by 2050, if world is to meet global climate goal of 1.5 degrees celsius.

4) ExxonMobil confirmed low energy prices related to COVID have wiped 20% of its projects off the balance sheet. Low COVID demand is merely a dress rehearsal for the future climate constrained world we're about to move into.

5) Bloomberg reported for 1st time in history, coal fire gen capacity declined in 1st half of year as coronavirus cut demand.

6) Nissan announced program w/Nissan LEAF drivers paying for parking with power from car. 

Deutsche Bank to cut investments in fossil fuels; BoA to disclose GHG impacts of lending practices; Panasonic improving battery tech for TSLA; Australia grid operator lays out new 20 yr plan; big hydrogen network planned for Europe; Arizona battery fire report

1) Deutsche Bank to curtail finance of coal mining by 2025, and limiting financing in the oil and gas sector.

2) BoAmerica joined other US banks committed to disclose impacts of lending/financing on GHGs.

3) Panasonic to increase the density of the battery cells for Tesla by 20% over the 5 years.

4) Australian Energy Market Operator 20-yr plan calls for big upswing in DERs, GWs of utility-scale renewables and storage, and a need for optionality in the face of rapid change.

5) 11 gas transmission system operators from nine EU countries announced the European Hydrogen Backbone Initiative, w/15,000 miles of hydrogen pipelines. Stage 1, by 2030, will see 4,500 miles of pipelines connected.

6) Report on APS battery fire finally came out, highlighting dendritic formation in cells leading to a short that propagated into "thermal runaway." Recommendations address a host of issues.

1) CA Utilities: Solo solar not so great, but Solar+Storage rocks the free world;

2) Microsoft update on negative carbon strategy (C-neutral by mid-2020; and C-negative by 2030): started a coalition with 7 big businesses to create a carbon roadmap for other corporations; also investing 1$ billion in innovative technology, issuing an RFP for carbon removal approaches;

3) Renewables king NextEra/FPL looking at $65 million project to create H2 from clipped solar.

4) Morgan Stanley says it can be done with surplus wind as well w/in the next two years,

5) Data giant Switch announced biggest behind-the-meter solar project in the world, w/127 MW solar, 240 MWh of batteries

6) Alliant says it will get to net zero by 2050. It doesn't know it yet, but it will eventually move that goal to 2040, or even closer.

7) NY just released a solicitation for up to 2,500 MW add'l offshore wind and 1,500 MW of land-based renewables.

8) FirstEnergy bribery. A complete cultural rip and replace would seem to be on order for that company.

Distributed Energy Storage Affirmed by US Court of Appeals; Solar Net Metering Challenge Rejected by FERC; BlackRock Fires Climate Warning Shots; and Green H2 Competitive by 2030

1) US D.C. Court of Appeals denied a NARUC and APPA petition to halt passage of FERC 841. As a result, on-site storage can participate in wholesale markets. Tension is now likely to arise between those markets and the distribution utilities that don't know when those distributed assets are activated, which could cause problems.

2) The FERC ruled unanimously to reject a petition that would have quashed state net metering rules allowing customers to sell surplus solar into the grid at a retail rate, essentially running the customer meter backwards. FERC used a procedural argument to say no, so this may recur.

3) Investment management firm BlackRock - with its $7 trillion under management - reported last week that it used its shares to vote against 53 companies not making progress in addressing climate change. 37 of the companies it addressed were energy companies with the combined market cap of $408 billion.

4) IHS Markit says green hydrogen from renewables being cost competitive with fossil fuel-derived gray hydrogen by 2030. 

Pulling the Plug on a Major Pipeline; New South Wales Going Straight From Coal to Renewables; EU Launches Green H2 Strategy; Saudi Arabia Announces Huge H2 Project

1) Duke Energy & Dominion Energy announced cancellation of Atlantic Coast, a 600-mile planned gas pipeline from West Virginia's Marcellus to Southern North Carolina. Gas is increasingly under pressure.

2) The New South Wales government confirmed it will call for 8,000 megawatts of wind, solar and energy storage, shifting away from coal straight to renewables without a gas bridge.

3) The EU launched its new green hydrogen strategy and may need as much as 80,000 to 120,000 MW of wind and solar resources to power electrolyzers, creating 6,000 megawatts of electrolyzer capacity by 2024, producing up to 1 million tons of H2. The plan calls for major R&D investments, regulatory changes, and development of new markets.

4) Saudi Arabia is charging ahead with H2. Air Products signed with Saudi-based ACWA Power International to develop a $5 billion hydrogen-based ammonia plant powered by renewable energy and capable of producing 1.2 million tons of ammonia annually and 650 tons of hydrogen daily. The H2 party is just getting started.

Spain shuts down nearly half its remaining coal plants; Four utilities in three states jump straight from coal to renewables & storage; PGE announces virtual power plant w/storage; Shell writes down $22 bn of assets

1) Spain announced it shut nearly half its remaining coal plants - taking 4,360 MW of capacity offline. Four add'l plants at 3,092 MW have also filed to close.

2) Four utilities in southwestern three states announced plans to move straight from coal plants right to renewables and batteries, without using gas as a bridge fuel.

3) Portland General Electric announced a pilot virtual power plant to connect & direct 525 residential energy storage systems and deliver up to 4 MW of grid services back to the utility. This isn't a new type of a program. Vermont's Green Mountain Power initiated a similar project years ago. It's expanded it with a tariff, enrolling 500 new customers every year.

4) Shell taking a $22 billion haircut, with the asset valuation updates reflecting "Shell's strategy to reshape and focus its refining portfolio to support the decarbonisation of its energy mix leveraging assets and value chains in key markets." My advice for Shell is to keep the write-down pen out. This process is far from over. 

Amazon announces climate pledge fund; Electrify America build first charging necklace across U.S.; MA AG asks regulators to review gas consumption/climate goals; DOE eyeing $100 mn for hydrogen research.

1) Amazon is creating a $2 bn pot to invest in sustainable tech to help it meet its goal of transforming to
net zero emissions by 2040. But its own carbon footprint was up 15% last year (oops!). Amazon is also renaming
Seattle's Key Arena to Climate Pledge Arena. It doesn't exactly roll off the tongue...

2) VW's Electrify America finished the first of two
planned cross-country EV fast charging corridors, a 2,700-mile link between L.A. and D.C. along Interstates 15 and 70. w/chargers every 70 miles, up to 350 kW.

3) MA AG is asking the Department of Public
Utilities to look into the future of natural gas in the state. Gas currently meets about two-thirds of space and water heating so state needs strategies around gas to meet legally binding CO2 emissions targets.

4) DOE does something intelligent for a change, announcing intention to invest up to $100 million over 5 years in two National Lab led consortia to advance hydrogen
and fuel cell tech, R&D. Affordable electrolyzers and advanced fuel cells are the focus.

Amazing tech stories this week! Taller wind towers (wood and cement); bigger land-based turbines (5.6 MW) coming to U.S.; liquid air batteries getting real; so are solid state; and 8Minute planning on 24 GWh of installations

1) Wooden wind towers - up to 150 meters) may be cheaper than steel says Modvion.

2) GE says not so fast, we plant to print towers with concrete and get to 200 meters.

3) Vestas showing off its monster land-based turbines with an order in TX for 5.6 MW machines.

4) More wind = more need for storage, which is good for HighView, who is building its 1st large liquid air storage facility in the UK, at 50 MW/250 MWh, teamed with a combined cycle gas turbine.

5) 8Minute Energy is going to use a whole heck of a lot of batteries, planning on 24 GWh of storage tied to solar projects.

6) and VW investing another $200 mn in solid state tech and associated manufacturing capability.

Things are about to get very interesting...

Southwest Power Pool hits record wind; RWE and ThyssenKrupp team up on big green hydrogen project; floating a growing concept in solar; India's Adani wins record 8 GW bid

1) SPP set records in March and April for highest
percentage of wind in resource mix for both a single hour, 72% on 4/27, 1-2:00 AM, and single full-day, 62% on Saturday, 3/7. Last year, wind energy in SPP averaged 29% of total demand.

2) Two of Germany's largest polluters join ranks w/green H2 project. RWE will build a 100-MW H2 plant, from renewables, to supply steelmaker ThyssenKrupp, by 2025. They'll create 1.7 tons of H2 per hour, 70% of needed supply for planned furnace, making 50,000 tons of clean steel, enough for about 50K cars. Steelmaking generates roughly 7-9% of total emissions.

3) floating solar iscoming to the fore, as a potentially big resource. EDF, Equinor, Statkraft and EDP s announced they're working on a technical industry partnership
with consultant DNV GL. DNV estimates that inland man-made waters could host 4 TW of solar power globally,
w/3 GW already installed.

4) India's Adani Green Energy won $6 bn, 8 GW solar contract. (context: US expected to install roughly 24 GW in 2020).

Chinese EV maker with half a million battery swaps; Germany requiring gas stations to put in EV chargers; Oil companies may lose as much as 2/3 of their value; NY w/massive onshore wind project

1) Chinese automaker NIO claims to have completed 500,000 battery swaps as of the end of May, a little over two years after it started, w/131 stations in 58 Chinese cities. A 3-minute swap is a better customer experience, but it's hard to see how the entire industry will shift to this approach, w/so much already invested.

2) Germany is looking at mandating that all gas stations have to offer EV charging. That could move sales just a bit.

3) London-based think tank Carbon Tracker that says that large hydrocarbon companies are at risk of seeing as much as 2/3 of their value - $25 trillion - wiped off of their books as a consequence of the forthcoming energy transition.

4) Suddenly New York thinks it's Texas. Regulators just approved a $454 million 340-MW wind farm spanning 30,000 acres southeast of Buffalo. 

Siemens Gamesa (SG) scores 1st 2 contracts for its 14 MW machines; Orsted teams w/ 5 large Danish companies on H2; UL certifies a wireless EV charging technology; negative power prices in the UK

1) SG announced 14 MW turbine & two orders: the 1st for 300 MW off Taiwan & 2nd off Virginia, w/Dominion 2,640 MW project, ready by 2026.

2) Six of Denmark's biggest companies will create big green H2 projects for transportation & heavy industry. Orsted will lead, w/up to 3 GW wind & 1.3 GW electrolyzer by 2030. Shell has similar H2 project in Netherlands w/up to 10 GW offshore wind by 2040.

3) UL just certified Lumen Group's wireless EV inductive charging technology to its 2750 standard. W/ no physical contact betw vehicle and charger, this type of tech is already in Amsterdam, Oslo, & Nottingham.

4) On May 22, average day ahead wholesale price was -£9.92 per MWh, going as low as £52.03 MWh (approx -$64 US). These prices represent a potential challenge, w/a real bifurcation betw low cost renewables & fuel-fired dispatchable resources. It will be difficult to incentivize the addition of new dispatchable resources in the future; a better mkt structure must be developed to deal with this emerging dynamic, in UK, US, and elsewhere. 

Denmark to Develop Two Energy Islands; Kauai at Almost 60% Renewables in 2019; BNEF Says We May Have Already Seen Peak Internal Combustion Car Sales; A New and Low-Cost Way to Create H2?

1) Denmark plans to develop two energy islands with wind turbines generating 4 GW by 2030. One artificial structure in the N Sea could host 10 GW of wind, partly used for production of H2.

2) Kauai generated 59% of its electricity from renewables in 2019 w/35% solar, 11% hydropower, 10% biomass. Customer rooftop supplied 1/3 of the solar. Kauai's been averaging 100% renewables for 5 hours daily in 2020.

3) BNEF reports that EV sales will fall 18% this year to 1.7 million. But internal combustion engine sales will fall 23%. More critically, BNEF's analysis, "Suggests that global sales of internal combustion engines peaked in 2017, and will continue their long-term decline after temporary post-crisis recovery."

4) Startup SGH2 claims that w/plasma torches, heating waste to 4,000°C, it can create green H2 for less than grey H2. Its $55 million facility to start construction near LA early 2021 yielding 38,000 tons of hydrogen annually, largely for fueling hydrogen vehicles in California. 

1) Equinor, Shell, and Total, working on $700 million carbon capture project off Norway to store 5 mn tons of CO2 in a reservoir 1.7 miles below North Sea. Either CO2 comes out up front, w/renewables, green hydrogen, or on the back.

2) HECO to buy 460 MW of solar power & 3 GWh storage, w/16 projects starting in 2022. HECO's total solar goes to over 50% w/utility 40% carbon free by 2030.

3) Maine's DEP OKs $950 million 145-mile New England Clean Energy Connect transmission project, for 1,200 MW and 9.55 TWh of hydropower from HQ to MA, possibly by the end 2021. Some enviro groups claim it fights climate change, but the crux is: either it creates additionality, that is, new hydro projects, or it doesn't. Based on my analysis for client, I stand firmly in the latter camp: NECEC does nothing to create additionality, simply moving non-firm exports into firm exports for the next couple of decades, while potentially forcing out new local projects.

4) We may see 3 Gigawatt-hour flow battery factory in Saudi Arabia. Site's already been identified, w/construction this year. The issue, is can they get to scale, drive the cost down, and can they compete in mkt dominated by lithium-ion to date. 

Super-Long Duration Storage Could Alter the Energy Landscape; Residential Solar Companies Driving Efficiencies - Because They Must

1) MN utility Great River Energy piloting a new storage technology from startup Form Energy, w/ 1MW aqueous air battery system said to be able to deliver 150 hours of continuous power. 150 hours of storage could facilitate a far greater penetration of renewable energy into markets. Critical issue is going to be the commercial and competitive one: Can it compete w/li-ion for the lion's share of value in the shorter duration market, while offering unprecedented value in longer duration one?

2) COVID is spurring adaptation & efficiency. Sunrun and SunPower adjusting very quickly, moving into digital sales, custom-designed software, and remote permitting and site inspection. In an extreme case, SunRun had customer signed up in the morning, we got the permit through, and we installed in the afternoon. That's unprecedented speed.